Engaging Agricultural Communities in the Great Plains of the United States with the Applications and Developments of Climate Prediction and Information
(A Project in the NOAA HDGCR Program)
Description of the Project
This proposal details a plan by researchers
at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln to conduct a series of workshops
and surveys, and develop and analyze a decision-behavioral model to understand:
(1) how the effects of climate variability are perceived and climate forecasts
and products used by producers in three agroecozones in the eastern Nebraska,
representing different grain production regimes , rainfed, irrigated, and
a mix of both in the western Corn Belt; (2) what are the attributes entering
producers’ thinking and their interplay to formulate producers’ intention
and decision to act on and use or not use climate forecasts; and (3) how
we can improve climate education and accordingly modify climate forecasts
and products so to increase the effect of climate forecasts in farmer’s
thinking and decision-making. The goals are to raise the value of climate
forecasts and products and, thus, climate research in the agricultural
communities in the Great Plains and reduce their vulnerability to climate
risks in our changing environment.
The specific objectives of the project
are to: (1) identify those agricultural activities most sensitive
to climate variability in the study area and determine how the application
of climate forecasts and products (or improved products) would help producers
optimize production and profit; (2) develop measurement and evaluation
devices and methods to quantify information and understand those factors
that agricultural producers consider when making decisions with climate
products, relative to their farm landscape and inherent climate variability
and those social, environmental, and economic constraints that affect the
way producers formulate climate forecasts in making their decisions; (3)
use materials gathered in (2) and develop a model that will quantify the
probability for producers to act, and the extent to which they act, on
using various climate products and complete a particular task; (4) identify
ways to improve the use of climate predictions by improving forecasts to
find what adjustments in the climate forecast tools/products can be made
to maximize the probability that producers will take action and correctly
use the products; and (5) develop a continuous monitoring system to update
our understanding of the evolution of producers’ thinking process over
time, particularly, changes in the probability of using climate forecasts/products
and their perception of the use of these products in their decisions in
response to this project, major climate events, and government policies.
This system will provide data to update the model developed in (3) and
from this analysis to find adjustments for climate predictions and ways
to improve predictions. This system can be used as a protocol for expanding
this methodology into other counties in Nebraska and other states in the
Great Plains region.
Principal Investigator: Qi
Steven Hu
Co-Investigators: Gary
D. Lynne, William J. Waltman, Donald
A. Wilhite, Kenneth
G. Hubbard, Michael
J. Hayes, Alan Tomkins,
and Lisa Pytlik Zillig
University of Nebraska-Lincoln (UNL), Lincoln, NE
68583-0728
(Telephone: 402-472-6642, E-mail: qhu2@unl.edu)
Project duration: August 2002-July 2005
PROJECT DEVELOPMENT (focus groups and survey design)
Related Websites:
National Drought Mitigation Center
http://drought.unl.edu
High Plains Regional Climate Center
http://www.hprcc.unl.edu
University of Nebraska Public Policy
Center
http://ppc.unl.edu
